关于区域可持续发展的系统分析

本文从更高、更新、更综合的高度和角度,对区域社会可持续发展系统进行了单元要素分析、结构层次分析。提出了三单元要素、三结构层次、三种发展类型的设想。这种分析尽管还是初步的、定性的、不很深刻的,但是为研究可持续发展系统提供了一种新的思路。     

19世纪是我国特大暴雨洪水发生期

本文用大量资料,论述了我国七个江河历史首位洪水均发生在19世纪。而且,洪水泛滥使得平原地区的水系迁移、湖泊淤缩极为严重。同时,存洪水年前后,伴随着一系列寒冷、干旱的气候异常现象。     

TREE RING RECONSTRUCTIONS OF STREAMFLOW FOR THREE CANADIAN PRAIRIE RIVERS1

ABSTRACT: Information regarding long term hydrological variability is critical for the effective management of surface water resources. In the Canadian Prairie region, growing dependence on major river systems for irrigation and other consumptive uses has resulted in an increasing vulnerability to hydrological drought and growing interprovincial tension. This study presents the first dendrochronological records of streamflow for Canadian Prairie rivers. We present 1,113‐year, 522‐year, and 325‐year reconstructions of total water year (October to September) streamflow for the North Saskatchewan, South Saskatchewan, and Saskatchewan Rivers, respectively. The reconstructions indicate relatively high flows during the 20th Century and provide evidence of past prolonged droughts. Low flows during the 1840s correspond with aridity that extended over much of the western United States. Similarly, an exceptional period of prolonged low flow conditions, approximately 900 A.D. to 1300 A.D., is coincident with evidence of sustained drought across central and western North America. The 16th Century megadrought of the western United States and Mexico, however, does not appear to have had a major impact on the Canadian rivers. The dendrohydrological records illustrate the risks involved if future water policy and infrastructure development in the Canadian Prairies are based solely on records of streamflow variability over the historical record.     

土地资源利用保护与农业生态建设

本文阐述了国内外土地后备资源现状及存在问题,解剖了土壤肥力演化机制和土壤资源保护的关系,介绍了我国生态农业建设的研究进展,指出了今后的主攻方向。     

多层次模糊综合评判在林业土壤评价中的应用

本文以四川部分林业土壤为例,应用多层次模糊综合评判法进行土壤资源的质量评价。采取聘请众多专家分级、打分的办法制定评价标准和确定评价因素权数。实施了专家系统与综合评判的联合运用技术,并探讨了提高土壤质量评级精度的“加细”评判问题。最后,通过比较多层次模糊综合评判法与传统法(评分法)的评价结果,指出前者具有更强的客观性和全面性。     

西北地区水环境安全面临的挑战和对策

文章分析了西北地区目前水资源现状、水资源质量状况和开发利用等情况，并对水资源供需发展趋势作出预测。根据西北地区水环境安全面临的严峻形势，提出了构建西北地区水环境安全体系的对策和建议。     

基于OSHMS的煤矿模糊综合安全评价管理模型的建立

针对目前我国煤矿企业安全管理现状,以一种全新的思路结合职业安全健康管理体系(OSHMS)的系统化体系结构及其先进之处,以预防为主,持续改进为动力,建立了基于生产过程的绩效测量、人员职责分配、运行控制和风险管理为核心的4个主要因素的安全评价管理模型;并以此为指导建立安全评价指标体系框架,运用模糊综合安全评价的方法对指标体系进行合成;最后,结合矿井生产过程中的供电系统,对淮南潘三矿现场进行实例应用,证明其可行性。该管理模型对煤矿企业安全管理有推广和借鉴意义,可望为煤矿企业通过安全管理实现科技兴安提供一种更可靠,更有效的安全管理方法。     

基于集对分析的尾矿库安全评价研究

为更好地对尾矿库的安全状况进行综合评价,针对尾矿库的特点建立了指标体系,并采用层次分析法确定各指标权重.将集对分析理论用于尾矿库的安全评价,并通过实例证明该理论适合于尾矿库的安全评价.集对分析中差异度I取1和-1.研究表明,当I=1时,指标体系中所有处于"一般安全"状态的指标项经过整改后能处于"安全"状态,此时联系度μ=0.736,尾矿库处于"安全"状态; 当I=-1时,指标体系中所有处于"一般安全"状态的指标项,在安全管理水平下降的情况下全部转为"不安全"状态,此时μ=0.114,尾矿库处于"不安全"状态.I的不同取值可反映尾矿库的具体安全状态,同时也反映尾矿库的安全管理水平,并充分体现了安全管理的重要性.研究为尾矿库的安全评价提供了一条新途径.     

Female grouping best predicts lekking in blackbuck (Antilope cervicapra)

The study of intraspecific variation can provide insights into the evolution and maintenance of behavior. To evaluate the relative importance of ecological, demographic and social conditions thought to favor lekking, I studied variation in mating behavior among and within populations of the blackbuck, Antilope cervicapra, an Indian antelope. Rather than viewing lekking as a discrete mating strategy, I took a continuous approach and treated lekking as a question of the clustering of mating territories, with leks representing one extreme in a range of territory distributions. I surveyed nine blackbuck populations, which differed in population density and in habitat conditions. For each population, I described the mating system in terms of the clustering of mating territories, and measured various factors suggested to favor lekking. I found that large-scale, among-population variation in territory clustering was most strongly related to female group size. Territory clustering was not related to population density. Female group size, in turn, was best explained by habitat structure. Interestingly, these among-population patterns were repeated at a finer spatial scale within one intensively studied population. These findings suggest that territorial males respond to local patterns in female distribution (represented by group size) when making decisions regarding territory location. Finally, although female distribution may explain territory clustering at the population level and more locally within a population, other selective factors (e.g., female preference, male competition, male harassment) are likely to shape the clustering and size of territories at even finer scales.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at .Communicated by T. Czeschlik